Trends in liver disease prevalence in Mexico from 2005 to 2050 through mortality data.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS The epidemiology of liver cirrhosis differs across sex, ethnic groups, and geographic regions. In 2000, chronic liver disease was the fifth leading cause of death in Mexico. Accurate knowledge of the demographics of liver disease is essential in formulating health-care policies. Our main aim was to project the trends in liver disease prevalence in Mexico from 2005 to 2050 based on mortality data. METHODS Data on national mortality reported for the year 2002 in Mexico were analyzed. Specific-cause mortality rates were calculated for a selected age population (> 25 years old) and classified by sex and projected year (2005-2050). The following codes of the International Classification of Diseases for liver diseases were included: non-alcoholic chronic liver disease and cirrhosis, alcoholic liver disease, liver cancer, and acute and chronic hepatitis B and C infection. The projected prevalence of a chronic liver disease was estimated using the following equation: P = (ID x T) / [(ID xT) + 1], where P = prevalence, ID = incidence density (mortality rate multiplied by 2), T = median survival with the disease (= 20 years). RESULTS Nearly two million cases of chronic liver disease are expected. Alcohol-related liver diseases remain the most important causes of chronic liver disease, accounting for 996,255 cases in 2050. An emergent syndrome is non-alcoholic liver disease, which will be more important that infectious liver diseases (823,366 vs 46,992 expected cases, respectively). Hepatocellular carcinoma will be the third leading cause of liver disease. CONCLUSIONS Chronic liver disease will be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the future. Preventive strategies are necessary, particularly those related to obesity and alcohol consumption, to avoid catastrophic consequences.